Super Bowl XLIII Odds and Betting Strategy Update: Proposition Betting

TAMPA, FL - As Reported by Betus.com: "NFL betting surrounding the Super Bowl often focuses on the spread and the total at the expense of the many proposition wagers on the board.

Bettors get
  so caught up in examining every trend and line move (the Arizona Cardinals are currently 6.5-point underdogs, by the way), they forget some of the biggest value lies on the proposition side of action.

The most popular prop bet going is on which player will win the Super Bowl XLIII Most Valuable Player award. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is currently listed as the favorite at +175, and he isn’t a bad choice considering he’s under center for the team the public expects to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

If you’re banking on the Cardinals pulling off the upset, QB Kurt Warner (+200) might be the way to go. There’s even more value in wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (+500), who figures to be the biggest part of any success Arizona has on the offensive side of the ball. Fitzgerald has already set a NFL record for receiving yards in the postseason with 419 through three games, and he’s bound to see plenty of tosses from Warner.

Head-to-head player matchups are another avenue for those looking to spice up their handicapping menu. Roethlisberger is priced at –130 to throw a TD pass before Warner, who is listed as an even wager on the moneyline for the proposition. While oddsmakers like Big Ben to find the end zone before the 1999 Super Bowl MVP, they also have more confidence in Roethlisberger when it comes to limiting turnovers. Roethlisberger is set at +160 to be the first QB to throw an interception, with Warner listed at –200.

That’s because of Pittsburgh’s impressive defense, which is led by strong safety Troy Polamalu. Polamalu is set as a tantalizing +3000 longshot to score the first touchdown of the Super Bowl, which presents some value if you’re thinking about an interception returned to the house to start the game. Steelers running back Willie Parker (+500) is the chalk for the category, with Fitzgerald (+550) and Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward (+700) hot on his trail.

First-half matchup props are also featured, and offer some interesting lines. Arizona RB Edgerrin James is priced at –150 to have the most rushing yards after the first 30 minutes, with Pittsburgh’s Parker set at +120. You would expect the value to lie with James, who shares carries with Tim Hightower in the Cards’ pass-heavy attack. It looks like linesmakers are accounting for Parker’s on-again, off-again injury woes as well as his recent struggles. Parker ran for only 47 yards on 25 carries in the Steelers’ 23-14 win over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, and could give way to secondary back Mewelde Moore for at least some touches if he can’t find his rhythm early.

Players assessing matters along those lines can bet the probability of Moore finding the end zone in the running back props section of the betting board. Moore is set at +300 to score a touchdown in Super Bowl XLIII, while the “no” pays out at –400. The same odds apply to the Edge, who ran for 73 yards on 16 attempts in Arizona’s 32-25 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship.

Bettors handicapping props on the two quarterbacks have plenty of options, with everything from total touchdown passes to props on whether or not either QB will throw a pick. The over/under on total TD tosses by either Big Ben or Warner is set at 1.5, with different degrees of value for each QB. Oddsmakers favor Roethlisberger to finish with more than 1.5 TDs (-155), while the under is set at +125. Players can grab Warner on the same proposition at –145 for the over and +115 for under 1.5 scores through the air.

Think Roethlisberger or Warner is due for a big game? Both quarterbacks are priced at a sizable +500 to throw four touchdowns, with three TDs priced at +300. Capping the vaunted Steel Curtain to shut down the Warner-Fitzgerald combo and lead Pittsburgh to a NFL-best sixth Super Bowl victory? Take Warner to be held to only one TD pass (+185), or better yet take your chances on the Cards’ QB being held off the scoreboard (+225)."